I posted earlier previews of the Canadian retail sales data for December, which is due at 1330 GMT on Thursday 22 February 2018:
Survey has:
- median consensus expected is 0.0% change on the m/m (i.e flat) while prior was +0.2%
And, for excluding autos:
- expected 0.3% y/y, prior +1.6%
These now (bolding mine) via BMO:
Retail sales are expected to drop 0.5% in December, breaking a three-month winning streak, as auto sales likely pulled back in the month.
- Adding to the softness is an anticipated decline in underlying sales. Increased activity on Black Friday has pulled sales into November in recent years, and 2017 was likely no different.
- The ubiquity of gift cards also serves to push sales into January, acting as another headwind on December.
Gasoline prices rose in the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. We look for sales ex. autos to drop 0.4%, while sales ex. autos & gas are expected to fall 0.5%.
There's likely downside risk to these figures as December has seen even sharper declines in the prior two years. And, with goods prices rising in the month, volumes could fall heavily.
CIBC:
- November sales have been chewing into holiday shopping that used to take place in December, something seasonal adjustment hasn't yet fully accounted for yet.
- As a result, look for a soft retail print ...
- Core sales (ex-autos and gas) should slip by close to half a percent, with only some of that weakness being offset by firmer gasoline prices. As a result look for the ex-autos figure to come in at -0.3%. The unit data we have on autos don't readily translate into dollar sales values, but sales there appear to have softened as well.
- Headline retail should slip by 1%.
