Higher retail sales did not help the NZDUSD today
In New Zealand at the end of the day, the NZ retail sales came out better than expected for the 4Q at 1.7% vs 1.4% (and the core up 1.8% vs 0.7%), but the price of the NZDUSD could not rally.
US dollar recovers some of the losses fro yesterday but mixed
The GBP is the strongest currency of the day, but as Mike has pointed out, the ride is a wild one with sharp moves higher and lower in the pairs. So don't blink. The NZD is the weakest despites solid retail sales. Go figure.
Some technical analysis levels for the CAD going into today's CPI data, these are from overnight notes,
So while the notes are not fresh the levels do appear still relevant (to me at least ... as of writing the post anyway)
Price falls below the 100 week MA at 84.48 today
The CADJPY has moved lower today and in the process the price fell below 100 week MA at 84.481. That is bullish/bearish barometer. We are below that level. Stay below and the bears remain in control. Staying on the weekly chart, the 83.18 is the 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2016 low.
Fall below MAs and trend line at the start of the day turned the tide lower
The GBPJPY is one on the bigger mover today.
The push lower was made in the early Asian Pacific session when the price fell below the 200 hour MA (green line), the 100 hour MA (blue line), and a trend line (see chart above). That fall sent the price to a swing area in the 148.63 and 148.89. The low reached 148.53.
Sellers did their job against the 100 and 200 hour MA on the corrective move higher...
The USDJPY is back down retesting the 50% retracement level. The corrective move higher reached back to the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines) The price moved above the 100 hour MA but stayed short of the 200 hour MA ().
First run stalled.
The GBPUSD made an earlier run at a topside channel trend line. The price stalled at the line and rotated back down. The low stalled at swing area in the 1.3923-293 area (see red circled numbers and the lower yellow area).
Can the old support MA, now keep a lid on the correction?
The USDJPY used the 200 hour MA as support in trading yesterday and for parts of today.
In the early NY session, the MA was broken followed by a break of the 100 hour MA (blue line). The fall took the price below the 50% retracement at 106.723 but that move was short lived, and the move has now taken the price back toward the MA levels.
100 hour MA stalled the rally today
The EURUSD broke above a topside trend line earlier in the day and ran higher. That run took the price close to the 100 hour MA target (blue line in the chart below) at 1.23555 (). The high reached 1.2352 (the current 100 hour MA is at 1.23548).
0.7355 area is now risk for buyers.
The dollar selling has the NZDUSD pushing above a couple of technical levels. The move took the price above the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement at the 0.7355 area. Both those technical tools came in at the same area and that usually gives traders a cause for pause.
Channel trend line comes in at 1.2315
The EURUSD has moved to session highs and in the process is up testing a topside trend line at 1.2315. Will the sellers come in here against the level? Risk can be defined and limited. However a break above should keep the momentum going.
100 hour MA at 106.986.
The USDJPY is trading lower and to new session lows. ON the decline, the price has moved back below the 200 hour MA (green line at 107.15) and now the 100 hour MA at 106.986 (blue line). The 38.2% retracement of the corrective move higher (that stalled with a triple top) comes was also broken at 106.98 area.
100 day MA at 1.27100. Trades to 1.2750 after weaker data
The USDCAD has shot higher (weaker CAD) after the weaker than expected retail sales (-0.8% and ex-auto tumbled -1.8% erasing the prior month 1.7% increase).
10-year yields break last week's high
Looks like another round of worries about inflation and Treasury yields is brewing.
The 10-year yield climbed above last week's high of 2.94% to the highest since early 2014. The big level of resistance is 3%-3.06% and then what happens once that breaks. Right now, the market is saying it will mean USD strength.