Technical Analysis

Like out of a textbook

Don't sleep on the remainder of the day The drop and consolidation in EUR/USD is like a textbook. The range is narrowing in a wedge and in the past 45 minutes, it's fallen to 5 pips. That could be a sign of an intraday breakout.

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FOREX Tue 28 Mar


MAs taken out EURUSD. The EURUSD tested and bounced modestly against the 100 hour MA. It just broke below it at 1.08204. The 200 hour MA is at 1.0793 and the next downside target. The 38.2% of the move up from the March 14 low comes in at 1.07886 and is also a target below. PS The EURUSD which had a 27 pip trading range up until 11 AM ET, is up to 74 pips. That is the 22 day average trading range (about a month of trading). 

USDJPY Tue 28 Mar

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY moves to unchanged on the day

Claws back losses Yields on US debt are up 1 to 3 bps. Stocks are trading near highs. The USDJPY was down about 50 pips about an hour and 1/2 ago, but we are now near unchanged at 110.66.  Come back for the pair.

EURUSD Tue 28 Mar

EURUSD tests 38.2% retracement level again....

Been below but not for long... It is little nuances when in a 27 pip trading range but the EURUSD has room to roam... today. The average trading range is 72 pips.  

DOLLAR Tue 28 Mar

Stocks push the markets around a bit

S&P up 0.40%. Nasdaq up 0.22%. Dow up 0.40% The major stock indices are now trading higher after the better data.  2 year yields are up 2 bp.  10 year is still unchanged  US data was much better than expected.  

DOLLAR Tue 28 Mar

Better US data. EURGBP heads higher. Hmmmm.

Consumer confidence not bad US consumer confidence hit it out of the park.  The Richmond Fed data was pretty good too.   The EURGBP loved it.  

USDJPY Tue 28 Mar

USDJPY making new session lows

Falling below trend line The USDJPY is making new session lows and in the process has moved below a trend line support level at 110.25 (see chart below).   We are getting a bounce back above the line now.  The Conference Board Consumer confidence is due at the top of the hour (114.0 est). The Richmond Fed will also be released.  It is coming out at 22 vs 15 est. now.  Data should give a bias for the pair. 

NZDUSD Tue 28 Mar

Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD going from a little bullish to a little bearish

With trend lines defining extremes and MAs in the middle.... The NZDUSD peaked for the year on Feb 7th and bottomed in March near the 2017 lows. There were three separate lows at the 0.6889-93 area. The January low reached 0.6884.  So overall 4 lows in the 0.6884 to 0.6893 range.  

EURUSD Tue 28 Mar

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD sideways trading in narrow range

Staying below 200 day MA The EURUSD is trading sideways in trading today in a narrow trading range (only 27 pips!).  There is not much meat on the trading bone today.  

FOREX Tue 28 Mar

The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

March 28, 2017. The JPY is the strongest. The NZD is the weakest. As the NA traders enter for the day, the JPY is the strongest while the NZD is the weakest.  The JPY pairs took a move to the downside in the London session after a NY session yesterday that saw the JPY pairs correct higher. 

GOLD Mon 27 Mar

Technical analysis: Gold tests 200 day MA today and falls back

200 day MA at $1260.44. The high reached $1261.08 today Gold rallied on lower yields in the US, a lower dollar, lower stocks and concerns about Trump.  At the peak the price reached $1261.08. That was just $0.64 from the 200 day MA at $1260.44.  Back at the end of February, the price also peaked above the 200 day MA and fell back lower.  Traders don't like to get burned twice on little breaks.  

AUDUSD Mon 27 Mar

Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD moves sideways for another day

Hangin around 50% retracement area The AUDUSD continues to trade sideways today. The low is higher than Friday's low. The high is higher than Friday's high, but the pair remains near unchanged on the day. The last 2 1/2 days has seen the price trade in a range of about 50 pips. That ain't a lot of movement.   We should see a break.  

USDJPY Mon 27 Mar

USD/JPY fails to break 110.00 as bids hold the line

Technicals and orders help to support USD/JPY The low today in USD/JPY was 110.11 on two separate attempts, spaced four hours apart. The failure to break lower created a double bottom with a measured target near 110.70. The high since then is 110.66, which is close to where we're trading now.

GBPUSD Mon 27 Mar

GBPUSD trading at NY session lows

Tests 200 bar MA on 5- minute/38.2% The GBPUSD has fallen to the 200 bar MA on the 5-minute intraday chart at 1.25584.  If you put a Fibonacci on the move up from the late Friday low to the high today, that is also being tested at 1.2559. The pair stalled at this area in the London morning session.. We are trading at NY session lows. 

EURJPY Mon 27 Mar

Forex technical analysis: EURJPY completes lap back higher

Tests swing levels... The EURJPY fell in the Asian session, bottomed in the early European session, and retraced the fall (and a bit more). Down and up.  

SPX Mon 27 Mar

S&P index recovers after gap move lower

Back above 50 day MA now... The S&P index gapped lower from the low from Friday at 2335.74 on the back of the failed repeal/replace of Obamacare. The move lower also took the price below the 50 day MA 2331.84. That was the first time below the 50 day MA since Election time back in November.  

EURUSD Mon 27 Mar

EURUSD back below 200 day MA...

Stock fall stalls the dollar fall The US stocks are still lower but trading near the day's trading highs. The S&P index fell to 2322.25. The price is trading at 2332. The high reached 2332.38.  Gold was up about $18/$19 at the peak. It is up about $12 now.  US 10 year yield is still down about 4.8 bp at 2.36% but is off the low at 2.34%.  

USDCAD Mon 27 Mar

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD takes off.

Crude oil moves toward $47 The USDCAD took off to the upside - moving away from the converged 100 and 200 hour MAs in the process (blue and green lines at 1.3348 area). The price raced up to the 1.3400 area (the high reached 1.34028).  In the process, the price extended above a trend line resistance line at 1.3385. The price is down retesting that line. The level also corresponds with the highs from Friday's trading. Crude prices are down about -$0.80 or 1.67%. That - and the technical move away from the MAs -  seems to have helped the pair push higher. 


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