Technical Analysis

Gold tests 10 month lows as sellers remain in control.

Continues the post Election fall Gold has moved to new session lows at $1158.02. That is new 10 month lows for the precious metal. Gold traded as high as $1337 on election day.  Since that time it is down over 13%

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DOLLAR Fri 9 Dec

A review of some of the favorite pairs.... in words ONLY

I can talk numbers though.... EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the 1.0551 level (low from last weeks trading) after the much better than expected University of Michigan  sentiment index.  That move added to an already bearish momentum move lower that gathered momentum on the break of the 1.0600 level. The triple bottom (April 2015 and December 2015, and November 2016 lows at 1.0517-21) was approached but the low could only go to 1.0530 today before stalling.  We currently trade at 1.0546 - below close resistance at 1.0551 and above the 1.0517-21 key level below (PS the low for the year reached 1.0503 on Monday after the Italian referendum but quickly rebounded). 

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BRAZILL Fri 9 Dec

Brazil energy minister has declined recent OPEC invites

Non OPEC members to meet this weekend. Russia has agreed to cut production by 300,000 barrels per day.  Azerbaijan has said it will come with its own proposal reduced output. Kazakhstan are thought to offer to freeze output at last months levels.  

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DUTCH Fri 9 Dec

Terror suspect in Rotterdam arrested...

Alert appears to be over. Investigation is ongoing but the suspect armed with Kalashnikov has been detained.

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EURUSD Thu 8 Dec

EURUSD back down testing the 1.0600 level.

A verbal review of some of the pairs EURUSD. The EURUSD has support in the 1.0600-05 area. The first test here found buyers and the price moved up to 1.0630.  We are back down looking for another bid.  There is some 2.8 B options expiring at tomorrow at 10 AM ET. That is a long way away but if traders want to defend the level, there could be some support. Topside resistance at 100 bar MA on  4-hour chart at 1.06409 level

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AUDUSD Thu 8 Dec

AUDUSD, NZDUSD: Bearish weekly signals intact: Targets and stops-NAB

Forex technical strategy For more views and analysis from global institutions, subscribe to eFX Plus by   CLICKING HERE.

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AUDUSD Thu 8 Dec

Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD settles between MA levels.

The rally yesterday was impressive but most of the gains given back The AUDUSD has a horrible GDP number on Wednesday that saw the price move down from around 0.7473 to a low of 0.7415. The low yesterday could not take out the weeks lows at 0.7410-13 and snap back rally began.

EURUSD Thu 8 Dec

Here's why I'm starting to buy EURUSD for the long haul

Phase one complete in my strategy to buy the euro for the long-term These last couple of months I've been mainly sitting on my hands trading wise. For sometime I've been waiting for the right time to buy both the pound and the euro for a long-term trade. While the pound is still a work in progress, one element of the EURUSD long trade was the ECB. Now that's passed, and gone pretty much how I was hoping, I'm starting to buy in.

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EURJPY Thu 8 Dec

Forex technical analysis: EURJPY stalls at 200 hour MA/50% retracement

Skimming along the MA level/50% The EURJPY fell with the other EUR pairs on the back of Draghi's "dovish" comments. There are some that are saying it was really a taper of policy but that may be for a different day.

USDCADTHE Thu 8 Dec

USDCAD chops around but low was a key level.

Higher on the day after 100 day MA holds support. The USDCAD has been very choppy over the last 4 hours of trading. However, there is a key target support level that was tested and held.   The 100 day MA comes in today at 1.31936 and the low today stalled at 1.31936. A perfect match.

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EURUSD Thu 8 Dec

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD tests trend line and 1.06000 level

Will the buyers enter or are we going to get another break lower? The EURUSD is trading to new lows and tests the next support area defined by the broken trend line. ALso the 1.0600 level is being approached. There are a fairly healthy amount of option expirations at the 1.06000 level tomorrow ().

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GBPUSD Thu 8 Dec

GBPUSD breaks lower. Below trend lines.

Neckline broken. The 200 hour MA was broken. Now trend lines and stops are being triggered. The trend lines defined a neckline for a head and shoulders formation and the underside of a broken trend line (the lower line).  The next target comes in at the 1.2533 area.  The 61.8% of the move up from the end of November low. The 50% of the move up form the Nov 17th low comes in at 1.2537.  That is the next target for the pair.

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GBPUSD Thu 8 Dec

GBPUSD falls below 200 hour MA

Head and shoulder neckline approached... The GBPUSD has moved below the 200 hour MA at 1.2589 after testing it yesterday and again today. The price is also testing the 50% of the move up from the end of November low at 1.2579. The neckline of a head and shoulder is being approached at the 1.25707 level.  The underside of a broken trend line is below that level is at 1.2564.

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EURUSD Thu 8 Dec

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD extends lower

The 1.0600-05 area is next target The EURUSD has dipped to new session lows and is moving further away from the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 1.0643), the 61.8% at 1.0644, and the 200 hour MA at 1.0666. Those level are now levels to eye on the topside. A move above will be needed to turn some of the bearish beat around (to the upside).

EARTHQUAKE Thu 8 Dec

A 6.9 magnitude earthquake reported off the coast of No. California (USGS)

Earlier this week there was a lower magnitude quake in the same general area.  The earthquake is 143km W of Ferndale CA in northern California and in the Pacific Ocean.  That is well north of San Francisco (260 miles).  Nevertheless, it is a decent sized quake.  Unsettled plates in the ocean are moving....

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USDJPY Thu 8 Dec

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY rallies with the dollar

Moves back toward the 114.44-54 area but backs off The USDJPY has moved higher off the firmer dollar tone. The pair moved above the 100 hour MA at the 113.84 level and pushed up to a high of 114.375. That was just short of the 114.44-54 area which corresponds with the swing highs going back to March 2016.  Last week (and on Monday) the pair extend about that area but stalled before the mid Feb 2016 swing high at 114.86 (at 114.82).   ON Monday, the price moved up to 114.77 but quickly retreated back below the topside yellow area. Sellers showed up.   Today's peak at 114.37 (and yesterday's high which was also short of the area) shows that there are some sellers on rallies. The pair still consolidates.  

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GBPUSD Thu 8 Dec

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD tests 200 hour MA again

GBPUSD falls in sympathy with the EURUSD The GBPUSD has fallen in sympathy with the EURUSD but at a slower pace (EURGBP is lower). The fall has taken the price back down to the 200 hour MA at 1.25893. Yesterday, that same MA stalled the fall and the price rebounded.

EURUSD Thu 8 Dec

EURUSD moves higher and then lower in volatile trade after ECB hybrid policy change

Continue the 80B per month followed by 60B The ECB presented a hybrid program. Until April the gas will be powering the QE engine at 80B per month. After that, the power will come from a slower 60B QE program. 

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EURUSD Thu 8 Dec

1.0800 isn't giving up easily in EURUSD

A rather bullish looking euro is looking at trying to get into 1.0800 The 1.0800 is quite a strong level technically. It's been an S&R level going back to early 2015. So, it's no surprise to see it acting up when we're testing it today.


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