Technical Analysis

After 8 weeks below the 100 and 200 week MAs, the USDJPY closes back above it

Can it stay above in the new trading week The USDJPY spent the last 8 weeks below the 100 and 200 week MAs (blue and green lines in the chart below).  Two weeks ago the pair stalled at new year lows - taking out the April 16th week low at 108.12.  

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FOREX Fri 22 Sep

Is it time for the EURUSD to get out of the up and down range? I think so.

And I will tell what to look for next week The EURUSD has been in a narrow 255 pip trading range in September. Did you know that is the the 7th most narrow trading range for a month gong back to 2006. 

SP Fri 22 Sep

US stocks are a bit lower in early trading

Down but recovering The US major stock indices are down but not by much US yields are down. Those are at low levels for the day.

FOREX Fri 22 Sep

The CAD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

September 22, 2017 winners and losers on the day As North American traders enter for the trading day, the CAD is strongest while the GBP is the weakest.   The USD is mostly weaker with the greenback down against currencies the exception of the GBP.  

GOLD Thu 21 Sep

Gold continues fall today. Tests 50 day MA. Stalls. What next?

Back below $1300 The price of gold has continued its move lower.  The US dollar is higher today vs the AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF and JPY. It is lower vs. the EUR and GBP.  A higher dollar tends to cheapen the precious metal.


US WTI crude oil futures settle at $50.55, down -$0.14

Falls -0.28% on the day The US crude oil futures are settling the day down -0.14 cents on the day or -0.28% at $50.55.  The low reached $50.07. The high reached $50.81.

EURGBP Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: EURGBP resets a ceiling at the 100 hour MA

Below 50% of years range too The EURGBP is moving lower and trades near session lows. The pair did rally into the London morning session but stalled just ahead of the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below). That is a bearish play and sellers took control.

EURUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD stalls in MA area (but just barely)

Peaks against the 100 hour MA The EURUSD moved higher over the last hour or so, and in the process moved above the 38.2% at 1.19258. The break, led to a run higher. That run peaked against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and 1.19549 (the high reached 1.19534).   That moving average was the highest of three including the 100 hour moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.19393, and the 200 hour moving average at 1.19462 (the 100 hour MA at 1.19544 was the highest).   Although the high peaked right against the highest MA (a move above might have triggered stops), the sellers did lean, and the price has rotated lower ().

BITCOIN Thu 21 Sep

Bitcoin technical analysis: Break higher yesterday...stalled.

Selling intensifies on break of converged 100 and 200 hour MAs Yesterday, bitcoin moved above the 200 hour MA and a trend line and I commented ""   

GBPUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD gets a boost on PM May comments

Moves above key resistance area said the UK would be willing to pay 20 bln Euro during transition period, but only if it has access to single market and some form of customs union.

USDJPY Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests and bounces off the 200 day MA

Buyers showed up at the MA line.  The USDJPY fell to the key 200 day MA at 112.15 level, tested and bounced.  We currently trade at 112.37 (). see earlier post outlining the level

AUDUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: AUDSUSD falls back below 200 week MA

The 0.79476 level is home to the 200 week MA AND the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.   The AUDUSD cracked and closed above the 200 week MA for the 1st time since May 2013 two weeks ago. Last week, the price closed lower but held the 200 week MA. 

GBPUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD waffles in a narrow trading range

Post-Brexit corrective highs below.  The 100 hour MA and trend line above. I have spoken a lot about the post-Brexit highs from June, July and September on this site of late. On Friday last week, the price moved above the 1.3443-798 area. That is where the swing highs were reached AFTER Brexit (see daily chart below). 

EURUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD retracing fall from FOMC. Draghi speaks.

Stalls ahead of the 38.2% of the move lower The EURUSD is now higher on the day (closed at 1.1890) but below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from yesterday's high (at 1.1926).  ECB Dragh is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt at the bottom of the hour.  His comments may impact the pair.

USDJPY Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY stalls ahead of swing levels from Jun/Jul

Break above topside trend line failed. 200 day MA key support now at 112.15 There is a lot going on in the USDJPY chart. The 4-hour chart below shows that the pair moved above a topside trend line (currently at 112.52) yesterday and into today.  However, the break and momentum approached another key area defined by swing highs and lows going back to June and July.  During that time the price broke higher, retraced and formed a floor at 112.81-93, only to break that floor and trend lower. 


US initial jobless claims 259K vs 302K estimate

Continuing claims 1980K vs 1975K estimate The US initial jobless claims came in at 259K vs 302K estimate.   The data is better but with the hurricane effects it is hard to get excited about the beat.

FOREX Thu 21 Sep

The EUR is the strongest while the AUD is the weakest as NA trader start the day

The USD is continuing it's rally post-FOMC As North American traders enter for the trading day, the EUR is the strongest, while the AUD is the weakest.  The USD is continuing it's move higher after the Fed announced the start of the balance sheet unwind, and said they expect 1 more hike in 2017 and 3 in 2018.  The commodity currencies are hurting on the back of the stronger dollar.   Spot gold is down another -$8.00 on the day. It trades at $1293 now.   also helped to pressure the currency. 

SP Wed 20 Sep

Dow and S&P close at record levels.

Dow up 9 straight days The Fed started the balance sheet reduction (albeit at a slowww rate) and signaled their expectation for 1 more hike in 2017 and 3 in 2018, but the stocks did not flinch...much.  The S&P and the Dow closed at record levels. The Nasdaq did shed -5.28 points but recovered by 42 points from the lows.  A down day, feels like an up day.

GBPUSD Wed 20 Sep

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD stays in the post-Brexit corrective high area

That's a mouthful As outlined in earlier posts before the decision, the post-Brexit highs came in at 1.3532, 1.3479 and 1.34439 (from June 2016, July 2016, and September 2016).


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