Author: Mike Paterson
2

US NY Fed's Dudley speaking at BIS event 26 June

  • Fed has taken very measured and careful approach to shrinking bond portfolio
  • US bond-shredding strategy easy to communicate, meant to limit adverse market effects
  • muted market reaction to portfolio announcements suggests Fed communications are sound

Or, market is confused it hasn't got a clue what to do. My money's on the latter.

USDJPY remains around 111.65. GBPUSD slipping back to 1.2728 as is EURUSD at 1.1177

AUDUSD comatose at 0.7571. USDCAD trading tightly between 1.3230-60

                              US Fed's Dudley - Fed communication is good

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Author: Mike Paterson

Bundesbank says private consumption important pillar of growth

German central bank out with latest monthly bulletin 26 June Comment echoing that of the IFO earlier in an  for June. upbeat assessment - German upswing also helped by lively mftg Full bulletin but no English version available yet.

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Author: Mike Paterson

US Fed's Williams in favour of further, gradual rate increases

San Fran Fed's Williams's speech due to be given in Sydney shortly 26 June - sees inflation reaching Fed's 2% goal in 2018 - very strong US jobs market carries risks Williams due to speak shortly. The text has just been released but currently talking to reporters.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

BOJ: Increasing number of firms raising wages, significant for higher inflation

From the Bank of Japan 'Summary of Opinions' of the June 15 and 16 meeting, just released This pre-dates the minutes by many weeks (due for release July 25) (Headlines via Reuters) From this summary it is clear again that there is no move to reduce monetary policy accommodation in Japan.

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Author: Adam Button
2

ECB orders Banca Popolare di Vicenza and another Italian bank closed

ECB declares the two banks as likely to fail Banca Popolare di Vicenza and sister bank Veneto Banco SpA are likely to fail and will be wound up, the ECB says.  Single Resolution Board declined to step in so instead Italy insolvency procedures will be used to liquidate their assets. Depositors are protected.

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Author: Adam Button

Yellen highlights a busy Fed schedule in the week ahead

Here is the Fed schedule for the week of June 25-30 The past week began with a series of hawkish and optimistic comments from the Fed's Dudley that underscored the continued case for rate hikes and buying the US dollar. Critics continue to fret that the inflation picture doesn't support higher rates.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Fed's Mester: It's time to gradually remove accommodation

Mester spoke in the Q&A - Failure to hike could mean inflation - Fed is raising rates to keep the economy healthy, not to slow expansion The hawks are still in control at the Fed but a fight is brewing.

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Author: Adam Button

No comment on the outlook from the Fed's Mester

Fed's Mester in Cleveland - Says Fed doesn't suffer from 'groupthink' - Fed independence yields better US economic outcomes We'll hear more from Mester later when she takes questions from audience and media.

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Author: Adam Button

Fed's Bullard to speak next

Bullard to speak at 1515 GMT (11:15 am ET) Yesterday, Bullard spoke with the WSJ and said the rate path is 'unnecessarily aggressive'. pr ojected I also noted how with his hands.

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Author: Adam Button
9

The inflation models are broken

Jobs, growth and inflation ain't what they used to be In the 20th century, it was easier for central bankers. When growth rose and the jobs market got tighter, prices and wages went up. It was macroeconomics 101 in real life.

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Author: Mike Paterson
1

Scarcity of German bonds a major consideration for the ECB

So say Reuters citing 3 sources " with direct knowledge of the discussions" The ECB has not put a deadline on extending or winding down the scheme but a decision is likely either on either Sept 7 or Oct 26, giving markets several months to prepare.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
5

ANZ on the AUD (forecasts) & RBA

ANZ's weekly look at the economy focuses on public sector spending But, they spare some space for the Australian dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA:

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Bk of Mexico Carstens: MXN has room to appreciate, but less than before

Bank of Mexico Governor Carstens - Says peso can reach 17 (to the USD) (but that is not a target) given the economy's resilience - Pause in rates could last though a Federal Reserve rate hike, actions already taken should be sufficient to take inflation to the 3% target by end 2018 Carstens speaking with Bloomberg. Banco de Mexico have been on a sustained hiking cycle but look set to pause.

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