Still above recent lows
The USDJPY extended higher in the Asian session and in the process moved above the 200 hour MA and the 50% of the move down from the August 15 high (at 109.77). That move was bullish.
EUR vs USD tug of war all set for the big stage
The biggest event on the agenda this week is the Jackson Hole meet this Friday.
Markets have been in a good mood to start the week - shrugging off the missile threats from North Korea, the mess in Washington, and the Barcelona terror attacks. But EURUSD has been trending between the 1.1700 and 1.1800 handles for the last 2 weeks, hinting that we're still lacking any real direction in the pair at this point.
Test 200 hour MA
The USDJPY just took a little run to new highs as the stock market comes in for the end of day landing and it is looking like a great one. The Dow is up 200 points the Nasdaq is up 1.42%. The S&P is up over 1.0% too.
Price could not rally. So selling back off.
The EURUSD range in the NY session is only about 25 pips. Over that time, the price has moved back and forth and in the process moved a little above the 100 and 200 hour MAs and a little below the 100 and 200 hour MAs (they come in at 1.1758 and 1.1762 respectively.
Been moving up and down of late
The AUDUSD moved above 2016 highs in July. The swing highs were in the 0.7730-55 area. Then 0.7834. Since that time, the price has one day with a close below the 0.7834. The current price is just above 0.7900 (at 0.7903). Bullish for the AUDUSD above 0.7834.
The pair trades at the highest level since 2009 but the trend line stalls the gains
The EURGBP is trading at the highest level since October 2009. On Friday, the price moved above the 2016 high at 0.9144. Yesterday it closed above that high and traded to a new high of 0.9162. Today the high has been extended to 0.91745. The price is breaking on the daily chart. It is breaking to a new 8 year high above 0.9144. That is now risk for the longs looking for more upside.
A little dollar selling as the London day comes to the finish
The USDJPY spiked above the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% of the move down from last week's high after the Richmond Fed data at 10 AM ET (at 109.47-49). The spike was quick. The break was rejected.
The July low at 1.2811 stalls the fall again (although there was a tiny break)..
, the 1.2811 was the low in July 2017. The earlier low today reached 1.28108. Another run to the level just printed 1.28098, below the low for the day and the low from July but the price has rebounded and trades at 1.2822 currently.
BUT....sellers are making a play.
The GBPUSD sellers are making a play today. The price is running lower. The price is moving away from the 100 day MA. The price is back below an old trend line connecting lows from March and June.
Hanging around 100 and 200 hour MA
The EURUSD is hanging around the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.1755-63 (blue and green lines). The pair is back in the meat of the up and down trading range. The low today stalled right at the 50% midpoint of the move up from the low last week at 1.17445. It can go either way.
The dollar breaks higher.
The USD is king today.
The greenback is up against all the major currencies with the NZDUSD trending the most (change of 0.67% for the day with the GBPUSD not far behind at 0.59%). As Mike points out, there is something about the 1.2600 level () that has kept that pairs move in check. Canada retail sales (+0.2% MoM and +0.1% ex auto) will make those option sellers (it behooves the shorts to have the option close at the strike price). The US Richmond Fed manufacturing index will be released at 10 AM.
WTI crude breaks 61.8% retracement
Oil is at the worst levels of the day in a quick reversal. Friday's gain had been the biggest one-day rally since November but with a minor double-top today, crude reversed. The selling has been relentless and picked up in the past few minutes as the 61.8% retracement of Friday's rally gave way.
USD/JPY edges towards key support levels
The battle in USD/JPY is the Mayweather-McGregor battle in financial markets. The pair on Friday briefly touched below the June low before rebounding when Bannon was fired. That bounce is fading with the pair down 45 pips today and the US dollar under broad pressure.
Technical analysis one to three month outlook for EUR/USD via Société Générale
EUR/USD has developed additional bullish signs after breaking above massive double bottom pattern with confirmation level at 1.1715/1.1610.
GBP was the worst performer last week
The latest stretch of trading has been especially discouraging for sterling bulls. At a time when most currencies have taken a bite out of the US dollar, the pound has backed off.
USD/JPY hits 108.61
In the end, USD/JPY hardly put up a fight as the pair fell below the double bottom at 108.68 and to a fresh low since April.
The April low at 108.13 is crucial now. It's going to come down to the Fed and Jackson Hole but Yellen is about to find herself in a pickle. She can't continue to lean hawkishly without any help from the data. If she eases back to neutral, the dollar will be battered.