USD/JPY is a notable mover amid a Japanese holiday today, with the pair seen up 0.6% to 153.90 currently. The yen is slumping as dip buyers step back in following a test of the 152.00 mark at the end of last week. Still, the big winner last week was Tokyo as USD/JPY suffered a drop of over 3% - its biggest since November 2022.
As we look to today, the dollar remains on edge in general as seen here. Meanwhile, equities are still holding up after the jump higher on Friday. S&P 500 futures are seen relatively steady, up around 0.1% currently. In the bond market, we saw 10-year Treasury yields dip back to 4.50% and that invites some questions about the Fed outlook.
After the US jobs report, traders are now seeing a 88% probability of a rate cut in September. And they are also ascribing roughly 45 bps worth of rate cuts for the year. That is a decent step up from around 31 bps at the start of last week.
Looking to European trading today, there won't be much to shake things up. We have a couple of PMI releases but they are the final readings for the services and composite indices mostly. As such, trading sentiment will rely more on the mood music after the US data on Friday. With the dollar having tested some key levels, are we bound for a retest or will dollar bulls fight back?
Also, keep in mind that it is a London holiday today. So, that will also affect liquidity conditions a little and make for a slightly quieter one in the session ahead.
0715 GMT - Spain April services PMI
0745 GMT - Italy April services, composite PMI
0750 GMT - France April final services, composite PMI
0755 GMT - Germany April final services, composite PMI
0800 GMT - Eurozone April final services, composite PMI
0800 GMT - SNB total sight deposits w.e. 3 May
0830 GMT - Eurozone May Sentix investor confidence
0900 GMT - Eurozone March PPI figures
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
