JP Morgan is out with a note, expressing wariness on expectations for continued falls in inflation.
JPM say (in brief) that global goods prices disinflation appears to have ended. Forecasts for disinflation to continue are based on beliefs not grounded in the evidence, JPM warn of opposite signals coming from (rising) gl;obal labour costs and similar indic ations from commodity markets.
JPM further cite rising:
- core good inflation rates both in the US and Euro area (excluding autos)
- higher prices for global shipping
- higher prices for oil and energy
-
As an aside I read a piece from US eco/macro researcher opining that the Federal Reserve is slowly moving towards no rate cuts at all in 2024.
