A preview of the Japanese CPI data today, due at 2330 GMT (22 February 2018)

For January

  • National CPI y/y: % (expected 1.3%, prior was 1.0%)
  • National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food: % (expected 0.8%, prior was 0.9%)
  • National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y: % (expected 0.3%, prior was 0.3%)

While there is often little immediate currency impact from the release, given the yen volatility we have seen today may well be an exception. Higher than expected (especially for the core-core) and there should be a yen positive impact, while in line or a lower result should be yen negative (argues for continued BOJ accommodation ... for longer).

A preview of the data via Nomura:

  • We expect the January all-Japan core CPI (ex-fresh food) to rise 0.8% y-o-y, 0.1pp lower than the December reading.
  • As the boost from energy prices weakens, we look for inflation to ease back temporarily.
  • We expect the January all-Japan core core CPI (ex-energy and food, except alcoholic beverages) to rise 0.1% y-o-y, unchanged from December.
  • Finally, we forecast all-Japan CPI inflation excluding fresh food and energy (the BOJ's preferred measure of core core inflation) to have risen by 0.3% y-o-y in January, again unchanged from December."