Up and down market after better retail sales
The UK retail sales were much better than expectations and the price of the GBPUSD moved above the 1.2500 level. The market rallied to 1.2527 but came back down to a low of 1.2488 in a "sell the rally" choppy trading environment. The price is back near the highs for the day as I type.
A break above the highs will have the traders looking toward the higher trend line at 1.2550. Look for sellers against the level on a test.
Looking at the daily chart the 1.2570 is the swing high from the end of February. That too is a level to lean against for sellers looking for a top in this pair. I do expect a fight on further moves higher but will respect the technical levels too as the buyers are more in control.
From a technical perspective, the price bias on the daily and hourly charts are more bullish. The price did move above the 100 day MA on Tuesday and remained above it yesterday. That MA line is currently at 1.2415 now. The 50% of the move down from the February high comes in at 1.2407. Being above those levels is more bullish on the daily chart at least.
On the hourly chart, the price is above lower trend lines at 1.2482 and 1.2449 currently (moving higher). That is bullish. It is also above the 100 hour MA at 1.24307 currently (blue line on the hourly chart and moving higher). The price has been above that MA line since March 15th. That too is bullish technically.
Should the price start to move below those levels starting with the 1.2482 level, will start to put more control in the sellers hands and could lead to a reversal of the upward move we have been seeing in the pair. Until then, the buyers are more in control with the potential that sellers try to keep a lid on rallies. The price has moved up 7 of the last 8 trading days (counting today as an up day). The close yesterday? 1.2481. That is just below that first technical trend line on the hourly chart. Get below and not only are we below the trend line but also turn to the red for the day. It might be the push the market needs.
