The USDCHF earlier today reached up to the highest level of the year at 0.90949. However the last three or four hours have seen a rotation to the downside after the weaker than expected ISM nonmanufacturing data. Fed's Powell also, the market at that sending yields lower and the US dollar lower in the process.
That good news sent the price of the USDCHF down below is 100 hour moving average at 0.9043 and down to the 200 hour moving average 0.90298. Hundreds road lower, the prior highs from last week at 0.9071 and 0.90637 were both broken opening the door for the downside corrective move.
The question now is can the sellers prevail and push lower. If so, the 0.9019 – 0.9025 swing area followed by another swing area above and below the 0.9000 level would be targeted.
For traders looking to buy dips, the most aggressive buyers are against the 200-hour moving average. The next against 0.9022 area and then 0.9000.
If the price starts to move below 0.9000, I would think there is a shift in the fundamental view. The current view fundamentally is based on the Swiss National Bank cutting rates, and the Fed waiting (with a summer cut maybe). Remember the First National Bank cut rates on March 21, shifting the fundamental bias in favor of the US dollar vs the CHF.
