Technical ideas for the new trading day.
EURUSD.
The EURUSD is ending Monday near the middle of the trading range at 1.12580. The price held support near an upward sloping trend line. The 1.1284 and 1.1300 level remains upside targets for the pair that if this pair is going higher, that is the area to push through. The 1.1300 is the high from the US November election.
USDJPY
The USDJPY remains above its 200 day MA at 110.261 (it is up to 110.30 in the new trading day). The low reached 110.30 today. At the lows, the price also tested a lower trend line on the hourly chart and held. That trend line is at 110.23 at the start of the new day and goes lower as each hour passes. What turns the sellers into buyers (or at least cautious buyers)? The early clue comes from a break above an old trend line. That trend line was breached twice today and twice it failed. That is clue #1. The second clue would come on the break of the 100 hour MA currently at 110.89. A move above that would also get above the 38.2% of the move down from Friday's employment. Until then though, the sellers are more in control still.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD moved higher in the NY session, reaching the 61.8% at 1.2940. The price started to come back down with a move below 1.2915. The pair is ending the day near the 1.2900. Of course the UK elections on Thursday has the potential to rock the market (and who knows what is priced in). So the market may look to set up technical levels that give bullish/bearish bias over the next few days. Then when the election results are more in focus, we could get an election day run.
In trading today, the 100/200 hour MAs are converging around the 1.2871 area. Earlier in the day today, the price used the 100 hour MA as a floor before moving higher. The holding of that line makes it a key barometer for bullish and bearish going forward. On the top, that 61.8% and the trend line not far from it, will be the focus.
AUDUSD
The AUD was the strongest currency in trading today ahead of the RBA rate decision. This is the 2nd day in a row with decent upside gains. The high price for the AUDUSD peaked at 0.74975 - just short of the 0.7500 level. Natural resistance, and a trend line on the daily chart helped stalled the pair (see chart above).
If the AUDUSD is going higher, the price needs to get and stay above the 0.7500 level. Then traders will look toward the 200 day and 100 day MA at 0.7530 and 0.75558 respectively. The 50% of the move down from March high comes in between those MA levels at 0.75389. That area is where the bullish rubber meets the road. It will need to get above that area to get the buyers really excited.
ON the downside, a move below 0.7440 is a step in the bearish direction. Stay below and the gains from the last few days might be fully retraced.
