Ups and downs continue for the pair
The GDT auction prices fell by 3% in the current cycle and that has helped to push the NZDUSD to the downside.
The NZDUSD pair has surely had its shares of ups and downs of late. There was a spike higher from September 6th to September 9th, but take that out, and the pair since mid August, is in at 0.7200 to 0.7379 trading range (see red box in the chart above). More recently (since September 26th) the range is 0.7218 to 0.7329 with lots of red and green candles (up and down).
Looking at the 4 hour chart the price today tried to extend above the 200 bar MA on the chart, but failed. There has been no closes above the MA line since September 27th. That line becomes a risk defining level going forward for shorts/sellers. If the price is to go lower, the price has to work through the minefield of support levels defined by the swing lows. Oh...it seems like a daunting task. with all the swing lows down to 0.7200. Every level is a potential bottom it seems.
Is there any other clues traders might latch onto that gets rid of the chop in the 4-hour chart?
Looking at the daily chart, a trend line connected lows going back to July. ON Friday, there was a move below the line. That failed. Yesterday, the line was retested and the price bounced. Today, the price has once again peeked below the line at 0.7253 and bounced. We currently trade just above.
If the sellers are to take control, getting and staying below the trend line will be a more bearish clue that could solicit more traders will to sell. That is not to say the minefield below will be any easier, but it could turn the tide a bit more to the downside. PS. the 50% of the move up from the July low comes in at 0.72178. Add that level to the "levels of importance" for traders to the downside. The last low from September 26th stalled at that level.
