Gives back all the gains though...
The GBPUSD moved down to test the close from Friday at 1.2880 in the NY afternoon, but stalled at the level. Earlier in the Asian session that level was tested and held. The subsequent rally into the London morning session, took the price to a high of 1.2940. Overall, it was a 60 pip rally up...and a 60 pip fall down... We currently trade just below the 1.2900 level currently after moving to 1.2903 and testing the 38.2% of the move lower today. Bears more in control in that chart.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price moved above and below the 1.2900 area in the Asian/early London session and even above the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart below). That should have been bullish. However, as the chart shows, the price move above those MAs failed, buyers turned to sellers, and the price fell. Bearish.
The pair remains in the "Red Box" defined in my chart by 1.2860 to 1.2987 (most of the trading over the last 13 days has been in that 127 pip range). In between is the 1.2902 area where there are a number of swing levels and the two moving averages. They will be used as a barometer for bullish above and bearish below. Currently, the barometer reads more bearish.
If we are to go lower, the 1.2860 level will need to be broken and remain broken. From April 18 to April 27, the market used that level as a ceiling before moving higher/above. Since then, it has become a floor. Now there has been some trading time spent below the level, including on Thursday and Friday last week. However, the time was minimal.
So if this pair is going lower, the price needs to get and stay below that level.
