...and the lowest level since Jan 3, 2003

The EURUSD has traded down to 1.03517. That took out the low from January 8th, making the new low, the lowest low since January 3rd, 2003. Looking at that time period around year end 2002/2003, the swing high from December 17, 2002 at 1.0337, on December 26th that high was breached. Then on January 2 and January 3rd, 2003, the lows stalled at 1.0334 and 1.0339 respectively - not to be tested again. A move below that level and the daily chart from 2002 (see below) will target the 1.0206 area. Swing high from July and swing low from December define bullish and bearish.

That is looking back in time, from the last time the pair traded at these levels.

Moving up closer, traders looking to define risk can either look at risk level above - that is where do the buyers take more control, or risk below. The risk below can be defined by using lower trend line levels on shorter time frame charts (like the hourly chart).

Looking at the hourly chart, the low from last week at 1.03657 was the low. IF the price can not start creating value above that level, the buyers are not really taking control. Sellers ARE more in control. That is an obvious price action clue.

Connecting recent highs, and defining a lower channel support line is another way to define a lower trend line target. Looking at the chart below, the channel defined shows that the lows today have attracted support buyers on the test.

So the market is trying to find support against a lower trend line and the price is also trying to recover back above the low from last week at 1.03657 level. Are buyers taking control. Well it is a start, but it is just the start.

What might give the buyers more comfort?

Looking at the 5- minute chart, the trend line, and 100 bar MA cut across at 1.0379 currently. Earlier in the day the price moved above that moving average (in the Asia-Pacific session) but could not get above the 200 bar moving average (green line). IN the London session, the price stayed below the 100 bar MA (blue line). If the buyers are to take more control, they need to push above those technical levels.

Buyers are trying to lean against a support line. They are trying to get above an old low, but they have more work to do to prove they can do more. As a result, the sellers are still more in control.