USDJPY stalls at 200 day MA (as expected). What next?

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdjpy

Rotates back lower after the test.

The USDJPY rallied after the CPI data (see post here).  The price moved to new session highs. The 200 day MA was a key target above.  The move higher got to 111.69 - a pip or so short of the MA level - and sellers leaned on the first test. 

The price has moved down about 30 pips from the high to 111.37. The 50% comes in at 111.326.

What to expect?

I expect chop.  

I get the stall at the 200 day MA on the first test, but I can also see the selling that took the price to the 50% of the move up from the September 2017 low (at 111.02) being enough too (see daily chart below. The low today reached 110.963).  Holding that level could easily give shorts a reason to take profit and buyers to lean harder against the 111.00 level.    

Right now, I would lean against the 50% intraday. Stay above bullish. Move below and we are back in the pre-data range.