USDJPY stalls at 200 day MA (as expected). What next?
Rotates back lower after the test.
The USDJPY rallied after the CPI data (see post here). The price moved to new session highs. The 200 day MA was a key target above. The move higher got to 111.69 - a pip or so short of the MA level - and sellers leaned on the first test.
The price has moved down about 30 pips from the high to 111.37. The 50% comes in at 111.326.
What to expect?
I expect chop.
I get the stall at the 200 day MA on the first test, but I can also see the selling that took the price to the 50% of the move up from the September 2017 low (at 111.02) being enough too (see daily chart below. The low today reached 110.963). Holding that level could easily give shorts a reason to take profit and buyers to lean harder against the 111.00 level.
Right now, I would lean against the 50% intraday. Stay above bullish. Move below and we are back in the pre-data range.