4Q retail sales to be released at 4:45 PM ET/2145 GMT

The next big economic event will occur at 4:45 PM ET/2145 GMT when New Zealands 4Q retail sales will be released.

The expectations are for the retail sales ex inflation to come in at 1.4% vs 0.2% last quarter. The core number is expected to show a gain of 0.7% vs 0.5% last quarter.

Technically, the price of the pair moved higher off the 50% retracement of the move up from the Feb 8th low. That level came in at 0.7306 and at the lows today, that 50% was tested a number of times.

The move higher today was able to breach the 200 and 100 hour MAs (green and blue lines) and the 38.2% of the move down from the high last week (at 0.7355). That break - like the break above the 100 hour MA yesterday - quickly failed.

The current price has been trading somewhat quietly over the last 3-4 hours.

The QoQ number has the potential to rock the market if it is off the estimates.

What would be some of the technical levels that will turn the tide?

On the upside, the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% at 0.7355 area is the first hurdle. It is not that far away of course but turns the tide and the bias becomes more bullish.

The next level would be the 50% of the move down at 0.7311 and the 61.8% of the same move lower at 0.73865. If the price shoots higher, and you are looking for a place to buy on a dip, the 50% at 0.7311 would be the place.

On the downside, the key barometer on a break lower, would be the 0.7306 level. The holding of that 50% level three times today makes for a good bearish line in the sand. An interim break would be the underside of the broken trend line at 0.73196 level.