50% retracements are also eyed

As the NA traders enter for the day, the USDCAD reached down to its 200 hour MA at 1.29752 and found some corrective buyers. The catalyst was favorable news overnight on NAFTA negotiations (CLICK HERE)

That 200 hour MA was broken above that MA on March 13th and ran higher.

The peak for the pair extended up to 1.31243 on Monday before moving back lower. That high was the highest level since June 28, 2017. The high got close to the 61.8% of the move down from the May 2017 high at 1.3131 before turning lower (see daily chart below). So sellers used the retracement to limit the run higher.

Now what?

With the USDCAD back lower, and the 200 hour MA finding some buying, does it signal the potential bottom? We never know but traders used that level to lean against on a test. A break below should solicit more selling. The 50% of the move up from the March low comes in at 1.29633 (see hourly chart). That would be a target on a break. Another target is the 50% of the 2017 trading range from the daily chart at 1.29268. Keep those levels in mind on continued weakness.

What would give the buyers more comfort and worry the sellers a bit today?

Watch the 1.3000-10 area as an area to stay belowl. The 38.2% is at 1.3001 (see hourly chart), and the swing low in the Asian session reached 1.3010. A move above those levels would suggest buyers are taking back more control.