Low got within 10 pips of the 2017 low
The USDJPY has been trending lower today and in the process moved within around 10 pips of the 2017 low at 107.31 (the low reached 107.416). Buyers could not resist and stalled the fall with risk defined and limited against the key swing low level.
Drilling to the 5-minute chart, the steady trend move lower is evident. At the lows, the price had two bottoms near the 107.416 level (the 2nd low reached 107.426). The consolidation near the lows over the last 5 hours has allowed for the 100 bar MA to catch up with the price.
The price has traded above that MA line over the last 20 or so minutes but the momentum is limited. Stocks opened lower, rebounded a bit, but is still negative. Bond yields in the US are lower out the curve although the 2 year is higher.
The market is deciding what to do next now that the 100 bar MA has caught up with the price.
I like to give the benefit of the doubt to the trends. They are fast, directional and tend to go further than what traders expect. Today, there has not been much of a corrective move suggesting that sellers are not panicking - at least for the time period. If the pair can not make a run outside the consolidation range, there should be another run toward the lows. IT is really a key decision time for both the shorts and the dip buyers.