Forex technical analysis: USDCAD at a key downside test level

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

The 100 hour MA held on the last test.  Testing again (at a higher level) today.

The USDCAD has moved lower after the US PPI data today. Crude oil cracked the $50 level as well which is helping to strengthen the CAD (lower USDCAD). Crude oil moved up to a high of $50.22 (currently at $50.10).  

The fall has taken the price down to test the 100 hour MA at 1.2675. Last Friday, the price approached the MA line and found buyers (see blue line in the chart above).   Today, the MA is much higher but the  level is still a technical test for control for the longs (and shorts).  

Will the buyers keep the control and bounce from here?  Will the sellers assume more of the control on a break? 

Key technical test. 

A bounce and move higher has to deal with the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart above. That comes in at 1.2743 currently.  The price has not traded above that MA line since May 19th week.   

On the downside, lows from Tuesday stalled around 1.2652 area.  A move below that will have traders eyeing the 200 hour MA at 1.26078 currently (and moving higher).   Above that, the low for the week comes in at 1.2627. That too will be a downside target.