EURUSD extends narrow range in early NY trading to the downside. What next?

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

First rally of the week could not get very far

The EURUSD started the week by moving higher. That move was limited, however, the price extended to the highs from last Thursday and near the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and stalled. The high reached 1.2296.  


As NY traders get settled at their desks, the price is moving to new session lows at 1.2235.  

What next?

The underside of a channel trend line comes in at 1.2235. So the market is testing that target the. The 50% of the 2018 trading range comes in at 1.2226.  The lows from last week comes in at 1.2211 and 1.22047. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at the same 1.22047 low from last week.  With the range at about 61 pips right now, going to test that low is not out of the question. 

Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, the recent fall did break and test the 200 bar MA on the chart, and moved below the 50% of the move up from Friday's low (last week's low).  That 50% comes in at 1.22508 and is a close risk level. The 200 and 100 bar MAs are also risk levels for shorts looking for more dollar buying today.


A little video experiment: