This chart and analysis via Commerzbank on EUR/USD - they are looking to 'reinstate small shorts on rallies to 1.1880 , 1.1910 - stop 1.1925.'
- EUR/USD continues to see a rebound from the 1.1662 August low. While we would allow for an extension to the 1.1900/14 resistance line and 2nd August high, we think it will struggle here. This guards the1.2092 high. We would treat a break below 1.1660 as the completion of a top formation for the market and a trigger for a sell off to the mid-June high at 1.1296 and the more important 1.1110 end of May low.
- Where are we wrong? Above 1.2092 would target the 50% retracement from the move down from the 2014 high at 1.2168 and the 1.2372 200 month ma, but if seen, that is expected to hold.
- Short Term Trend (1-3 weeks): 5 month uptrend has been eroded
- Long term trend (1-3 months): Looking for signs of failure in the1.2092/1.2371 band. 1.2168 is the 50% retracement and then the 200month ma at 1.2371, where we look for failure.
More:
Support
1.1662** 17 August low
1.1612* 26 July low
1.1583 18 July low
1.1479 20 July low
1.1433** Pivot line
Resistance
1.1910** 2nd Aug high
1.1918* Resistance line
1.2035* High 20th Sep
1.2070/92** High 29th Aug
1.2168* 50% retracement
