Steve Beckner on the next Federal Reserve Chairman
This Fed appointment reminds Steve Beckner of the one back in 1983. Beckner has been watching the Fed for more than 35 years and thinks the obvious candidate is the one that few people are picking: Janet Yellen.
He makes a good case. Yellen is a the most-dovish candidate and that would suit Trump. She's also guided the stock market to all-time highs, something he tweeted about minutes ago.
Politically, it would also be a winner. Yellen is the only woman on the shortlist, he could claim it as some bipartisan grand gesture, he would have more cover if the Fed screws up because he re-appointed her, rather than selecting her.
The only downside would be upsetting some of his base but for most of them monetary policy is a low priority and even if they're upset they're going to vote for him anyway.
Beckner argues that the second most-likely candidate is John Taylor, who is more of an intellectual match for the current administration. Beckner expects Taylor would back away from hard rules if appointed but hints he would still be a hawk.
On Warsh, Beckner cites a former senior official who said he "doesn't know what he's talking about."
On Powell, he said it's unclear which way he would take monetary policy but notes that he's seldom diverged from the consensus.
