Forex news for NY trading on October 17, 2017.

A snapshot of other markets is showing that:

  • Spot gold fell -$9.76 on the back of the higher USD
  • WTI crude oil was up $0.14 or 0.27% to 52.00. The high reached $52.25. The low extended to $51.21
  • The Dow traded 23K for the first time ever but closed just below at 22997 (up 40.48 points or 0.18%. The S&P closed up 0.07%. The Nasdaq fell 0.01% (call it unchanged).
  • 2 year 1.546%, up 0.8 bp
  • 5 year 1.9598%, up 1 bp
  • 10 year 2.301%, unchanged
  • 30 year 2.804%, down -1.8 bp

The US import prices rose by 0.7% for the month (est 0.6%) and the YoY was also higher at 2.7% (vs 2.6%). I can't say the market roared off the news but the USDJPY did see some action to the upside. Later industrial production rose 0.3% (as expected), and capacity utilization came in at 76.0% vs 76.2% estimate. The hurricanes ended up shaving 0.25% off the IP data. NAHB housing market index came in better at 68 vs 64 estimate.

In other news today Mexico and Canada rejected NAFTA proposals from the US. The hurt the CAD and MXN (recovered though).

In Fedspeak today, Fed's Kaplan said that he is keeping an open mind about rate hikes and he is looking for inflation to reach and surpass the Fed's 2% target in the medium term. Fed's Harker said he sees little slack in the jobs market.

The dollar moved higher in the NY session but did lose some of its luster into the close. Nevertheless, it did end as the strongest of the major currencies.

The GBP was the weakest. BOE's Ramsden and Tenreyro gave more cautious responses in their testimony and Carney did not hint of a November change. That pressured the GBP into the NY session. In the NY session, the currency recovered a bit but it still remained at the bottom of the currency league table today (see the rankings below).

Looking at the technicals for the major currency pairs:

The EURUSD trended and stayed below its 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart for most of the day, but in the NY afternoon, the pair moved above and sellers turned to buyers, forcing the pair up about 20-25 pips. There is overhead resistance in the new trading day at 1.17865 (200 hour MA)

The USDJPY based against its 100 hour MA earlier in the day at 112.12 area. The move higher took the price above the 200 hour MA (at 112.359 currently), but that break failed. The price rotated back down to the 100 hour MA in the NY afternoon and the at stalled the fall. With support against the 100 hour MA holding twice, it will be a key support level, and barometer for a bullish or bearish bias in the new trading day. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.

As mentioned the GBP was the big loser for the day, and spent most of the NY session trading below the 200 hour MA at 1.3196. The high price in the NY session extended to 1.3193. Stay below that MA keeps the sellers/bears in control in the new trading day.

The USDCAD did a lap in trading today. The pair first rallied - basing off the 200 hour MA in the Asian session at 1.2514 area. Later in the NY session - after peaking at 1.2590 - the price rotated all the way back to the 200 hour MA. The NY afternoon low reached 1.25175. We are closing near that level. A move below the 200 hour MA at 1.2514 would turn the bias back to the downside for the pair.

That is a review of the NY session and a look at some of the major pairs into the NY session.

Good fortune with your trading and remember, don't dig yourself into a trading hole..... ; )