USD/CAD fell as low as 1.2003 today but has rebounded to 1.2050
The US dollar is under broad pressure but the Canadian dollar is ignoring it.
One reason why?
There is an election in the province of Alberta tonight. It's the home of Canada's oil and gas industry and 90% of the country's production. The right-wing Progressive Conservative party has held power in the province for 43 years and is cosy with the energy industry.
However, polls show the left-wing New Democratic Party holding a 15 to 22-point lead. In most cases, an NDP lead would be fully priced in with such a large lead in the polls but the past handful of Canadian election has been a disaster for pollsters. In the previous election in Alberta, the far-right Wildrose Party was ahead by 8-9 points in the final election polls but ended up losing by 10 points. It's been a similar story in other provinces.
The NDP campaigned on raising taxes for the rich and corporate taxes so a win may cause curb some investment in the oilsands (or at least cause fear about it). Watch for CAD reactions to exit polls. Official polls close at 10 pm ET (0200 GMT).
On the chart, it's early but an inverted head and shoulders pattern is beginning to form. It may eventually target 1.25.
USDCAD intraday
