November is a struggle for oil

On average, oil has fallen 2.93% in November over the past 10 years. The past three Novembers have been especially bad with declines of 10.6%, 17.9% and 3.8%, respectively.

In May, we saw US drilling rigs turn higher and soon that will translate into higher production. Meanwhile, OPEC is pumping flat out despite talk of a freeze.

US inventories have been drawn down surprisingly fast over the past two months but refinery maintenance season is upon us and they are set to begin climbing higher.

Technically, the swift fall to end the month wiped out the October gain and there is little support for WTI crude until close to $44.