What levels to look out for over US NFP

Not long to go until the bestest most funnest data point of the month and here are some levels to watch for on any big moves (you can probably just close your eyes and pick euro levels out of thin air given the moves today)

USD/JPY

  • UP - We have the short term resistance line coming off the 23 Dec highs (120.80) through 11 Feb high (120.46) at 120.29. I'm itching to see the higher 120.70 level get a test and we could well be in the ballpark for that to happen. 121.00 will have natural resistance, as noted on the order board too. A break of 120.70 and 121.00 could be enough to see us blast of out the years range but wait for confirmation via those levels holding on a retest before committing to a break. If we do so then 121.50/60 should offer some resistance before we attack the Dec 2014 highs around 121.80/85
  • Down - 119.60 is the first decent level I'll be watching but it's only 40 odd pips away so won't stand up to a big miss in the main number or wages. 119.20/25 has seen some action this year and we have the Jan uptrend there too and the 100 h4 ma, so that could figure more prominently. After that 118.60/70 has been support and we have the 55 dma at 118.61 too. Then it's the 100 dma at 118.49 with more old support around 118.40/45 as well. 118.04 has been a strong pivotal level and likely to be honey to a dip buying bee

EUR/USD

  • Up - 1.1000 will be target number one with 1.1030 the next. There's a minor level at 1.1060 and 1.1085 and after 1.1100, 1.1115 is probably the strongest of the lot. After there 1.1160 is next but I'll be surprised if we even come close to that unless the NFP completely craters
  • Down - Don't ask me, I'm looking into the same hole you are :-D We'll have to refer to the orders for this one as there's nothing on my radar until the August 2003 lows around 1.0760. South of there we have the bottom of the 2008 channel at 1.0570/80

GBP/USD

  • Up - 1.5200/20 is likely to hold some resistance and it could be sticky all the way to 1.5260. 1.5264-72 looks a good area for resistance as we have the broken 2010 support line, 200 h4 ma and former support at 1.5272 (which admittedly wasn't up to much on the move down) 1.5294 has the old Jan 2009 support line ahead of the 1.53 big figure. 1.5340/45 is the level I'd watch for after that
  • Down - 1.5140/45 was pivotal in Jan, 1.5100 will see some support action ahead of the broken Jan downtrend at 1.5080. Through there we'll have one eye on the 1.5020/25 level before thinking about 1.50 and the Jan low at 1.4950

For the number themselves another decent jump in the earnings components will be bullish for the buck. I don't know when the data was take and whether there's any weather effects on the reporting date but a bad headline NFP is likely to be brushed off. If we do get one and earnings remain steady that's like to be a decent move to fade. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% from 0.5% so if we see then drop to zero or negative then we may get a deeper move south. Earnings y/y are expected in at 2.2%, matching last month. For the NFP we're going to need to see at least a 50-75 variation either way to really move the dollar.

Good luck to you all