The 100 hour MA (and trend line not far away) proved to be a strong resistance level

The USDCHF moved up to the 100 hour MA yesterday not just once, but twice. Then today, the same moving average was tested in the Asian session. Three tests. No breaks. HMMMM. What does that say to you? (see post from yesterday)

If resistance cannot be broken, the price goes lower. Traders were leaning against the 100 hour MA and the trend line. Risk could be defined and limited. Rather than getting stopped out on a move higher, the sellers were rewarded with a move lower instead. The buyers who were trying to push above, they too contribute to the fall. Why? They turn from buyers to sellers.

What now?

The price has moved below the 200 day MA at 0.99478 currently and moving away in the last two hourly bars. Admittedly, the price action is down but there are ups and downs too. However, looking at the 5-minute chart, the 100 and 200 bar MA have stalled rallies in the London and NY sessions. Those MAs come in at 0.9945 and 0.9952 respectively (and moving lower). Below that is closer resistance against lows from yesterday, the 38.2 to 50% retracement of the last move lower (yellow area) and the underside of a lower trend line. That close resistance comes in between 0.99319 and 0.9936. Stay below keeps sellers more in control intraday. A move above could muddy the downside waters at least for the rest of the trading day (could see a retest of the MAs and the 100 day MA.

Sellers more in control. A move below the low for the day opens the downside for more downside potential.