Four opportunities to look at over NFP

The US jobs circus rolls into town and with a lack of data on the European docket today we can spend our time looking at some trades for NFP.

I very rarely take a trade before the announcement unless the market is offering something well outside of the intraday trend at the time. It's a complete lottery and I've no wish to gamble with my money. Gambling is not trading.

His Royal Gregness says it perfectly in his latest video: How to trade the US employment report. It's well worth a gander if you haven't seen it yet.

The best opportunities often come after the release when we've assessed the data and worked out whether any price moves have matched the data, or expectations for any other outcomes like another rate hike from the Fed. If they don't, that's the type of trade I'm looking for.

I also like to look at where moves may grind to a halt. Are there any strong tech levels that will put up enough of a fight to send the data chasers back from whence they came?

I've been over the charts and here's 4 trades that are worth looking at, if we get the right conditions boxes over the data.

1. AUDUSD short

Reason: A decent pop higher on the data moves the price against the bearish trend we're now in due to the RBA turning more dovish. I believe we're now in a pretty strong rally selling mood in this pair.

Where to get in: There's several levels I'd think about a short and a lot depends on where we are at the time. To that end, these are based on where the price is currently (0.7370).

  • 0.7400/20 is where we'll see some resistance on a mild miss on the data. I'd consider this level but only with a small-ish short as I'd be worried about any further profit taking as we close the week off.

  • 0.7450 is where I'd have more confidence for a trade, again not a big one but one I'd be happy to add to if we hit the higher entry target

  • 0.7490 - 0.7500/20 looks to be the nearest strongest level out the pack. It's going to take something big from NFP to get there but you never know

AUDUSD H4 chart

Part 2 coming right up