Testing KEY resistance at 103.50 area

The USDJPY is trading at new session highs as dollar buying is gaining traction in early NY trading. The ADP came in as expected at 177K (prior month revised to 194K from 179K). The prior two months for ADP underestimated the NFP numbers. Perhaps the market is anticipating the same thing come Friday's employment report? A number above 200K on Friday (barring any surprises with the unemployment rate or hourly earnings), will have the market thinking something in September MAY be forthcoming. Of course, we have been down that road before.

Technically, the USDJPY moved above the key 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday. It was the next progressive step in the pairs move higher (bullish).

Today, the price has moved higher away from the level and for the day, was able to stay above the prior August high at the 102.83 level. The low today was at 102.85. Buyers were leaning against that level.

The high just reached traded up to 103.43. This is just short of the next key target for the pair against the 50% of the move down from the July high at the 103.496. Lows from June 16 and June 21 stalled at the 103.54 area. That area should give buyers a cause for pause. However, note that the JPY has a lot of longs from the weekly commitment of traders (so can see a squeeze for lower JPY/higher USDJPY). Also on the daily chart, the pair is still more near the low for the year. The high for the year was way up near 122.00. The high from July extended to 107.486. So there is that potential for more upside. PS. the USDJPY is tading an old trend line at at the 103.50 level as well (see chart below). That increases the upside resistance today. Don't be surprised to see sellers with stops above 103.54ish area.