Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD tests 100 hour MA and bounces on the first test

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | nzdusd

RBNZ this week

The NZDUSD moved higher in the Asian session and back lower in the European/NY session. The general dollar bullishness this morning has helped to push the pair lower. The price moved down to test the 100 hour MA at 0.7237 level and bounced on the first test.  

This pair has been moving steadily higher since bottoming on May 11.  Looking at the daily chart below, the move higher moved above its 100 and 200 day MA and through retracement levels from the move down from the Feb 2017 high (at 0.7097/50% and 0.71617/61.8%).  The 0.7236-46 area (see red circles in the chart below), was a dividing line between bullish and bearish back in Jan and February 2017.  Admittedly, the last three trading days (see chart below) has seen the price move above and below that level as the market waffles near highs.  Today, the 0.7237 support from the 100 hour MA dovetails the 0.7236 level on the daily chart.   That helps to increase the levels importance technically.  Get below 0.7236 and the pair is not fully in the bearish woods (the 200 hour MA and trend line remain as a level to get to and through), but it shifts more of the bias to the bearish side.   

So far support is holding though. That keeps the buyers more in control...   

PS. The RMBZ rate decision will be announced at 5 PM ET/ 2100 GMT on Wednesday (that is Thursday locally in NZ of course).   No change is expected.  The NZDUSD is trading near high  levels and has been trending higher.  That might lead to more profit taking into the risk event.  However, I still need to see the aforementioned levels broken to turn the tide - and expect a rotation lower into the decision.