Whippy action in the London session

The EURUSD is trading higher on the day pre-NFP albeit modestly. The pair closed at 1.1404 yesterday. We are currently trading at 1.1422.

The expectations are for:

  • 200K NFP jobs (prior month 215K)
  • 4.9% unemployment rate
  • +0.3% hourly earnings

What technical levels are important and why?

On a weaker number (160K, 5%, +0.2% or less):

  • Getting and staying above the 1.1435-65 is key. The area was home to a number of swing highs going back to Feb 2015. There have now been 3 moves above that area since that time. The first lasted for 2 days, the 2nd for 1 day, and this weeks move above lasted for 3 days before closing back below. So 6 days in total since Feb 2015.
  • 1.1481. The current 100 hour MA
  • 1.1494-1.1500. The high price from October 14. The 1.1500 is the 50% of the move down from the high this week and also a nice round number
  • 1.1528. Swing high from Wednesday and 61.8% retracement
  • Above 1.1528 and there is not much until the high for the week at 1.16155

On the stronger number (+230K, 4.9% or lower, +0.3% or higher).

  • 1.1385: Low from yesterday
  • 1.1324-48: Last month frem the employment day until Feb 13th, the low prices were in this area. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 1.1333 - in the middle of that range (the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is a bit higher at 1.1355). A trend line on the daily chart comes in at 1.1324 too. Get below this area and stay below and the bears will be in control.
  • 1.1312: 38.2% of the move up from the March low
  • 1.1270: Swing low from FOMC day
  • 1.1214-18. The 50% of the move up from the March 10 low (last bottom before the move higher). The lows from April 22 came in at 1.1214.