Falls below 1.1000
The EURUSD has slid further - falling below the 1.1000 level in the process. The pair has moved to test the lower trend line on the hourly chart. That trend line is holding the support on the first test. Traders will lean against defined technical levels and trade against it. With the trading range at 125 pips or so (a fairly nice range), it provides an opportunity for the counter trend traders to enter for a quick trade.
The last move lower has been more orderly (compared to the choppy action through the Draghi press conference). The 38.2% -50% of the last leg down comes in at the 1.1012 -18 currently. The initial low for the trading day was at 1.1025. This area is close resistance now.
The US non farm payroll is the next major hurdle for the market from a fundamental perspective. A solid 235K is expected. If it comes out weaker (weather perhaps), it may lead to a corrective rally but the market is putting space between the old support levels. For example, the low from January is up at 1.1097. The 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) is currently at 1.1147 (and moving lower). As a result, a correction higher as a result of a weather effected employment report, and the overhead resistance gets in the way. It will not be until, those topside technical levels are broken will the technical picture start to look more bearish.
