Forex technical analysis: EURUSD retraced 50% of Feb move...

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

...inching back down

The EURUSD retraced 50% of the move down from the Feb high.  That level came in at 1.06745. The high reached 1.0678.  

What now?

Earlier today, (NY session) the better data sent the price below the dueling 200 bar MAs (200 hour MA/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart - green lines in the chart above), but that level was retaken (moved above), and the price pushed back higher.  That was the move to the 50%).  Now we are pushing back toward the point of the break. That is, the 2 moving averages.

Yesterday the price for this pair tried to move lower on better data but rebounded. Today we needed to get above the 100 hour MA, and then those two MAs.  The move all the way up to the 50% was a pretty good move. The range today is 90 pips. The 22 day average is 82.  The 50% is a key level.  Profit taking makes sense. 

Fundamentally you can talk about a strong dollar. But, you can also talk about a weak dollar. In the EU you can talk about a recovery and strong EUR.  You can talk about "not fully out of the woods".   As Ryan pointed out earlier:

"Sometimes when things like this happen, the best thing to do is quit worrying about the reasons, and stick to the lines on the charts. You go with the holds or you go with the breaks, KISS."

Yes. Keep It Simple to be Successful....  Try to trade "near the lines". You are going to guess wrong sometimes. Other times you will sell a high, buy a break that works or buy a low.  Sometimes you are going to miss and watch instead.   That is ok. It still represents the best advise I have read and can give myself too.