The ups and downs
Earlier today, I warned about the day being a choppy one (see prior post). The bias was more bearish after testing and holding below the 100 hour MA. A new low was reached but the pairs momentum lower faded just above the next target support at the 1.0862 level (low was 1.0866),. The EURUSD moved higher.
That 100 hour MA was broken in the last hour of so of trading, a new high was made by a whole 1 pip and the price is now trading below the 100 hour MA again.
Is the market just toying with the range? Well, all indications are pointing that way. It could be a reverse head and shoulders (I think more might be leaning this way). It might be a range with the price ping ponging between 1.0955 and 1.0862 (yellow area and RED horizontal line).
As mentioned earlier, the sellers had the opportunity to continue the move lower yesterday (below the 61.8% at 1.0845) and they failed.
Today they had another shot. They could not get below the 1.0862. So they failed.
Can we get a correction of the 646 pip move lower? It is still in play for sure. Is there risk to the downside still? You bet. The fundamentals of a Fed that seems itching to get it going and Greece can always take charge. So, I am in no way "set it and forget it". In fact, getting above 100 hour MA at 1.0929, getting above 1.0949-56 (yellow area) and above 1.0967 are still needed to make me a touch more comfortable with that idea. Moving much below the 100 hour MA and it is best to wait it out some more.
We will see....But don't fall in love with anything. Just like it....
