Up and down session so far
The EURUSD is starting the NY trading session by moving to new session lows, and in the move, is making new lows for the month (taking our yesterday's low at at 1.0862). The move completes "a lap" in trading today whereby the price moved from an Asian Pacific low of 1.0865 to a high of 1.0928 before moving back down to the recent low. UP and then DOWN.
Looking at the daily chart, the 61.8% of the move up from the March 2015 low to the May high comes in at the 1.0845 level. That level is being tested currently. A momentum move below the 1.0845 will start to look toward the 1.0800-10 area. There is a trend line on the hourly chart (see chart below) near this level.
One thing to be aware of today, is the trading range for the day is currently 85 pips. This is still light compared to the normal trading range (22 day average range is around 141 pips). So that implies there is room to extend the trading range. With the pair at low, that makes the extension lower the easiest hurdle. What might turn the tide higher from a technical perspective?
I am always partial to a move back above the 38.2-50% of a move (in this case the move back lower today - see chart below). IF the price can move back above this area (yellow area currently at 1.0877-1.0887 - move this if we trade new lows), there could be a snap back rally. After all,we did a lap already in trading today. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance is lower still but support is slowing the decline a bit. KEY TEST.
