Forex technical analysis: EURUSD dips a little but intraday tech pic gives cause for pause

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

It is not all that bearish, but....

The EURUSD moved higher today, and before the data, moved above the 200 hour MA and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.0647.  The price on the 5-minute chart also moved above a topside trend line with a number of tests (see red circles in the chart below).  

That break was a bit presumptuous perhaps. The 8:30 AM data with the Philly Fed printing the highest number since 1984 and jobless claims/housing not too  bad either, has put a damper on the bullish run.  Is it running away to the downside? No. Not yet at least.  The thing is that all the technical stuff above, can now be a level that "the market" leans against now.  If if holds and we cannot go up, we go down.

On the downside, the lower trend line and the 100 and 200 bar MAs will now be eyed at 1.0628 and 1.0619.  Get below and a move back toward the 1.0605 level where the 100 hour MA is found, will be eyed.  We did move below that MA earlier in the day, but it did not last for long (the 200 bar MA on 5- minute ended up holding).  

Once again....not a disaster.  But is there a cause for pause technically and fundamentally?  Yes.  We are seeing that in the price action.  Higher or lower?