Moves above 100 week MA, trend lines, Fibos

The EURUSD has made break with a momentum pop to the upside. The pair is trend with little in the way of corrections. The range for the day is 93 116 pips which is above the 77 pip average for the pair. Buyers are in control and unless, the sellers show they can take back control, the trend is your friend.

Looking at the weekly chart, the pair moved back above the 100 week moving averages at 1.0986 level and started to gather more momentum against the level. Yesterday, the price moved above the level on the way to a high of 1.0989, but that was quickly reversed. There was a test later in the day that stalled at the level (see 5-minute chart below). Today, there was some reluctance, but eventually started to push with momentum.

Also on the weekly, the price has moved above the 50% of the choppy range trading at the 1.1025. Finally, a trend line was busted. That trend line was broken last week on the gap opening (on Monday), but quickly failed. The line cut across around the 100 week MA. Bulls are in control. This is a change in the technicals. Unless we go back below those broken levels, the buyers are in control.

Looking at the daily chart (below) , the 1.1100 level is now targeted, with 1.1128 (61.8%) another upside target. There could be some stall against the targets, but expect stops on break above as well as trends can go on....

Where is risk? Close risk in a trending market comes on retracements of the trend legs higher. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the EURUSD is trading at the highs as it moves toward the next targets at 1.1100 and 1.1128 (from daily). What might turn the tide on the downside? The 38.2-50% of the last trend leg is a close risk level for buyers. The reason is that as the market trends higher (in this case) buyers are winning vs. the sellers. If the sellers can push the price below the 50% of the that last move, they take back some control of that last leg. It is a small victory, but it shows some reluctance. That retracement comes in at 1.1068-73. Stay above shows the bulls are still in full control. Move below and the waters are a bit muddy at least for the trend. The sellers have a small victory.