Wake up...
The GBPUSD is asleep in trading today. Is it time to wake the sleeping currency pair?
Technically, yesterday, the pairs price fell below the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above), but found that sport against the underside of the broken trendline was a level to lean against. Today, after moving above and below the 100 hour moving average in the Asian Pacific session in early European session, the pair has been trading back above that 100 hour moving average at the 1.5159 level over the last 5 hours of trading. The problem is the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above) at 1.5175 has been able to keep a lid on the pair. So the baby sleeps with some tosses and turns.
If you are/have been a parent of a baby, you know that it is nice when the baby takes a nice long nap but you don't want for it to go too long. They might be up all night. So we wait for the baby to awake and for the break and run.
Now, the bigger picture from the same hourly chart, shows, the pair is in a bit of a hibernation (like a bear) going back to Sept 25th. The 50% of that hibernation range is at 1.5175 - right about the level of the 200 hour MA (green line). Evenentually, the hibernation will end too with an extension above or below the outer levels at the 1.51068 below and the 1.52435 above. That break (above or below - the "market" does not know just yet0, will require blasting through some levels before the breakout. The 1.5200-13 was home to a lot of swings lows and highs going back to Sept 24th to 30 period). ON the downside, the underside of the broken trend line (that held yesterday) will need to be broken).
Time to wake the baby. We will work on the hibernating bear later.....
